2017 U.S. Nationals Preview: Life After Michael Phelps

Preview of the 2017 USA Swimming Phillips 66 National Championships and World Championship Trials. This article looks at who will fill the void of Michael Phelps in the butterfly and individual medley events.

Jun 21, 2017 by Ben Colin

2017 U.S. Nationals Preview: Life After Michael Phelps

2017 U.S. National Championships & Worlds Trials

June 27 - July 1, 2017
Indianapolis, Indiana
IUPUI Natatorium
MEET INFORMATION

Outside of a race against a shark, the greatest swimmer of all time has hung up the goggles. Although we learned from Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre to never say never, Michael Phelps won't be making any racing appearances at the 2017 Phillips 66 National Championships next week in Indianapolis.

Now, in the wake of Phelps' retirement, there are three holes left to be filled on the World Championships roster in his trademark events -- the 100m and 200m butterfly, plus the 200m IM.

Phelps and counterpart Ryan Lochte have dominated the 200m IM since the early 2000s. Between them, they have won this event at all but one major international championship since 2003. Since 2004, only five American swimmers have represented the country in the finals at an international competition.

Lochte currently holds the world record (1:54.00) after claiming it from Phelps in 2009 and then lowering it to its current mark at the 2011 World Championships. Phelps held the record for 2,223 days from 2003 to 2009. Lochte broke it and has held on ever since.

Neither the four-time Olympic 200IM gold medalist nor the world-record holder will be racing to make the team in Indianapolis. The coveted 200m IM spot is up for grabs now that the dynamic duo is out of the picture.

Leading the way are four swimmers, Phelps' former training partner Chase Kalisz, teenage phenom Michael Andrew, and Olympians Josh Prenot and Jay Litherland.

Kalisz, the Olympic silver medalist in the 400 IM, leads Prenot and Andrew by over 1 1/2 seconds. The battle is likely going to come between the 18-year-old and the 200m breaststroke silver medalist from the 2016 Olympics -- but Litherland looked great in Santa Clara at the arena Pro Swim Series. The 2016 Olympian in the 400m IM has closing speed unmatched by anyone in this field and has to be a factor.

But back to Prenot and Andrew. Prenot has top-level international experience from the Olympics last summer. Andrew has represented Team USA but never at a major long course competition. Both have gone faster in the 200 IM than they did in 2016.

Each time they have faced each other in the arena Pro Swim Series this season, Prenot has won. In the closest race, Prenot edged Andrew by less than 0.2. That was at the Indianapolis Pro Series meet, the same pool as the National Championships.

For the sake of youth, Andrew filling the role would present the best outlook for the future. Neither will be in serious contention to carry on the medaling tradition, however. That will likely be Kalisz.

FloSwimming's Picks: 200m IM

1.) Chase Kalisz
2.) Josh Prenot

The 200m butterfly, Phelps' baby, is likely to have Olympian Tom Shields in the hunt. Shields failed to get a second swim in Rio and isn't ranked in the top three entering the National Championships, but still -- he has to be a favorite to make the team.

Again, Kalisz leads the way here with a 1:55.82 from the Pro Series in Mesa, AZ. He is followed by Jack Conger, the 2017 NCAA champion from Texas. A year ago, Shields and Conger finished second and third, respectively. As is the case in the 200m IM, the 200 butterfly is likely a three-man race.

Outside shots at claiming the spot left vacant by Phelps are Kalisz's Georgia teammates Pace Clark and Gunnar Bentz as well as Louisville's Zach Harting.

Harting, who some might confuse with Batman, will no doubt be fast after he changes out of his Dark Knight costume he wears to the blocks.

FloSwimming's Picks: 200m Butterfly

1.) Jack Conger
2.) Chase Kalisz

As for Phelps' performances in the 100m butterfly, not many swims beat his gold medal-winning finish against Michael Cavic in the 2008 Olympics. At the Rio Games last summer, Phelps claimed silver (actually, a three-way tie with Laszlo Cseh and Chad le Clos) but currently has American teammate Tom Shields to fill in for him.

Shields was a finalist in Rio, finishing seventh. He ranks first heading into Nationals followed close behind by Conger and Caeleb Dressel. Either could claim the second spot.

Dressel took the NCAA title from Olympic gold medalist Joseph Schooling in March, but the long course 100m fly is a different beast. It will take an adjustment to having two less walls to make a run at the top two spots. Conger, a better 200 butterflier, won't have to worry about that.

Coming off of his first individual NCAA title in the 200 butterfly, Conger may finally be in store to have an individual breakout on the national team level. Both butterfly events position him well to represent Team USA individually.

Tim Phillips represented the United States in at the 2015 World Championships in Kazan, Russia. He is in the hunt again to make a World Championships team. He, along with former Cal Bear Seth Stubblefield, challenged Phelps and Shields at Olympic Trials.

FloSwimming's Picks: 100m Butterfly

1.) Tom Shields
2.) Jack Conger

Phelps allowed younger athletes more time to fill his roles in the 400m IM and 200m freestyle. Both events have turned out well for the United States recently. The same will happen with the butterfly events and the 200 IM.
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